守初心耕海探洋七十载担使命披风踏浪砥砺行——中国科学院海洋研究所70年发展纪实   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王凡  孙松 《海洋与湖沼》2020,51(4):664-672

中国科学院海洋研究所是新中国第一个专门从事海洋科学研究的国立科研机构,她的70年光辉历程是我国海洋科技事业从无到有、从弱到强的发展缩影,是新中国海洋科学调查研究自主创新发展历程的真实写照。本文简要介绍中国科学院海洋研究所的主要发展历程,回顾70年来取得的主要科技成就,并围绕新形势下建设海洋大科学研究中心等改革发展举措,讨论和展望研究所的未来发展。  相似文献   

基于高分辨率风场的海洋近惯性能通量计算——时空特征及其影响因素     

杨兵  侯一筠 《海洋与湖沼》2020,51(5):978-990

基于高分辨率CFSR(climate forecast system reanalysis)风场资料、气候态海洋混合层厚度资料和卫星高度计海面高度异常资料,本文估计了大气风场向全球海洋混合层的近惯性能通量和近惯性能量输入功率,并探究了混合层厚度、风场时间分辨率、经验衰减系数和中尺度涡旋涡度对近惯性能通量和能量输入功率的影响。浮标实测风场和流速表明,本文所用的风场和阻尼平板模型可用于估计风场向全球海洋的近惯性能通量。本文计算得到的大气向全球海洋输入近惯性能量的功率为0.56TW(1TW=10~(12)W),其中北半球贡献0.22TW,南半球贡献0.34TW。在时间上,风场的近惯性能通量呈现各个半球冬季最强、夏季最弱的特征,这和西风带风场的季节变化有关。在空间上,近惯性能通量的高值海域为南、北半球西风带海洋,尤其是南大洋。混合层厚度和风场空间不均匀性使得西风带近惯性能通量呈现纬向变化,即海盆西部强于海盆东部。风场时间分辨率对近惯性能通量的估计至关重要,低时间分辨率风场对近惯性能通量的低估达到13%—30%。阻尼平板模型中的经验衰减系数对近惯性能通量估计的影响不超过5%。中尺度涡旋涡度仅改变近惯性能通量的空间分布,而对全球近惯性能量输入功率的影响可以忽略。  相似文献   

基于机器学习的海洋环境预报订正方法研究     

许立兵  王安喜  汪纯阳  陈悦  陈昱文  周峥  陈幸荣  邢建勇  刘克威  黄小猛 《海洋通报》2020,39(6):695-704

结合中尺度数值模式 WRF 预报数据和 ERA5 再分析资料，利用机器学习方法对 WRF 预报场的风场、温度、气压进行预报订正。采用 ERA5 作为真值，与原始 WRF 预报相比，利用随机森林模型可以将预报结果整体均方根误差降低 44%以 上，利用深度神经网络模型可以将预报结果整体均方根误差降低 34%以上。通过随机森林模型实验得到不同输入特征对预报要素的影响程度，分析了关键的预报订正因子。  相似文献   

基于核函数NPSSB模型的HY-2A卫星雷达高度计海况偏差研究     

张洁  田杰  王兆徽 《海洋预报》2020,37(1):1-10

利用机器学习的方法,对14个周期HY-2A卫星高度计数据:风速、有效波高和海面高度差值进行训练,探究海况偏差和风速、有效波高之间的关系,创建海况偏差核函数非参数模型(NPSSB),并与参数模型中具有代表性的BM3、BM4模型进行对比。研究表明:(1)核函数NPSSB模型能够很好的反映SSB与U、SWH之间的关系,SSB与U呈二次函数关系,SSB与SWH呈反比例函数关系;(2)核函数NPSSB模型对SSB的模拟能力与训练数据集相关,数据量越多,模拟能力越好;(3)核函数NPSSB模型与BM3、BM4模型都存在0^-0.03 m的差值,随着风速和有效波高的增加,差值的绝对值越大。  相似文献   

大型射电望远镜主反射面调整方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

孙正雄  王锦清  虞林峰  张志斌  王广利 《天文学报》2024,65(2):15

随着毫米波天文学和空间通信的重要性日益提高, 对天线性能提出了越来越高的要求, 而天线性能往往受到其反射器表面精度的限制. 微波全息技术是一种快速有效的检测反射面天线表面轮廓的测量技术. 通过微波全息测量得到天线口径场, 计算天马65m射电望远镜反射面与理想抛物面的偏差. 天马65m射电望远镜的主反射面板是放射状的, 有14圈. 面板的每个角都固定在面板下方促动器的螺栓上进行上下移动, 且相邻面板交点处的拐角共用一个促动器. 采用平面拟合的方法可以计算各块面板拐角处的调整值, 但是同一个促动器会得到4个不同的调整量. 通过平面拟合, 同时以天线照明函数为权重的平差计算方法得到相邻面板拐角的一个平差值, 即天马65m射电望远镜1104个促动器的最佳调整值. 通过多次调整和新算法的应用, 天马65m射电望远镜反射面的面形精度逐渐提高到了0.24mm.  相似文献   

Impacts of New Implementing Strategies for Surface and Model Physics Perturbations in TREPS on Forecasts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones     

Xubin ZHANG 《大气科学进展》2022,39(11):1833-1858

To improve the ensemble prediction system of the tropical regional atmosphere model for the South China Sea (TREPS) in predicting landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs), the impacts of three new implementing strategies for surface and model physics perturbations in TREPS were evaluated for 19 TCs making landfall in China during 2014–16. For sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations, spatially uncorrelated random perturbations were replaced with spatially correlated ones. The multiplier f, which is used to form perturbed tendency in the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendency (SPPT) scheme, was inflated in regions with evident convective activity (f-inflated SPPT). Lastly, the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization (SPP) scheme with 14 perturbed parameters selected from the planetary boundary layer, surface layer, microphysics, and cumulus convection parameterizations was added. Overall, all these methods improved forecasts more significantly for non-intensifying than intensifying TCs. Compared with f-inflated SPPT, the spatially correlated SST perturbations generally showed comparable performance but were more (less) skillful for intensifying (non-intensifying) TCs. The advantages of the spatially correlated SST perturbations and f-inflated SPPT were mainly present in the deterministic guidance for both TC track and wind and in the probabilistic guidance for reliability of wind. For intensifying TCs, adding SPP led to mixed impacts with significant improvements in probability-matched mean of modest winds and in probabilistic forecasts of rainfall; while for non-intensifying TCs, adding SPP frequently led to positive impacts on the deterministic guidance for track, intensity, strong winds, and moderate rainfall and on the probabilistic guidance for wind and discrimination of rainfall.  相似文献   

Identification of Convective and Stratiform Clouds Based on the Improved DBSCAN Clustering Algorithm     

Yuanyuan ZUO  Zhiqun HU  Shujie YUAN  Jiafeng ZHENG  Xiaoyan YIN  Boyong LI 《大气科学进展》2022,39(12):2203-2212

A convective and stratiform cloud classification method for weather radar is proposed based on the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm. To identify convective and stratiform clouds in different developmental phases, two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) models are proposed by applying reflectivity factors at 0.5° and at 0.5°, 1.5°, and 2.4° elevation angles, respectively. According to the thresholds of the algorithm, which include echo intensity, the echo top height of 35 dBZ (ET), density threshold, and ε neighborhood, cloud clusters can be marked into four types: deep-convective cloud (DCC), shallow-convective cloud (SCC), hybrid convective-stratiform cloud (HCS), and stratiform cloud (SFC) types. Each cloud cluster type is further identified as a core area and boundary area, which can provide more abundant cloud structure information. The algorithm is verified using the volume scan data observed with new-generation S-band weather radars in Nanjing, Xuzhou, and Qingdao. The results show that cloud clusters can be intuitively identified as core and boundary points, which change in area continuously during the process of convective evolution, by the improved DBSCAN algorithm. Therefore, the occurrence and disappearance of convective weather can be estimated in advance by observing the changes of the classification. Because density thresholds are different and multiple elevations are utilized in the 3D model, the identified echo types and areas are dissimilar between the 2D and 3D models. The 3D model identifies larger convective and stratiform clouds than the 2D model. However, the developing convective clouds of small areas at lower heights cannot be identified with the 3D model because they are covered by thick stratiform clouds. In addition, the 3D model can avoid the influence of the melting layer and better suggest convective clouds in the developmental stage.  相似文献   

Box-Cox正态转换在长江子流域极端降水气候事件判定中的应用     

吴瑶  杜良敏  刘长征  张俊 《湖北气象》2022,41(1):94-100

利用1961-2017年长江流域700个气象站点逐月降水资料计算长江流域9个子流域面雨量,采用基于Box-Cox正态分布转换后的百分位法对长江流域不同时间长度的极端降水气候事件阈值进行界定。结果表明,在数据序列长度发生变化的情况下,面雨量序列经Box-Cox正态转换后,计算得到的极端降水气候事件阈值的变化相较于常规百分位法明显减小,具有更为稳健的特性,从而使得相应极端降水气候事件个例的挑选更为稳定。根据该方法得到的阈值,对2018年汛期(6-8月)长江各子流域极端降水气候事件进行判定,岷沱江流域发生了极端多雨气候事件,而长江干流重庆-宜昌段、汉江及中游干流区间发生了极端少雨气候事件。  相似文献   

Satellite estimates and subpixel variability of rainfall in a semi-arid grassland          下载免费PDF全文

Yong Chen  Jing Duan  Junling An  Huizhi Liu  Ulrich G?rsdorf  Franz H.Berger 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(5):24-29

卫星估雨精度的不确定性受到当地降雨类型和像元内降雨非均匀性影响,而结合这两个关键因素开展半干旱草原卫星估雨的研究有限.2009年夏,我们在中国锡林郭勒半干旱草原用多部微雨雷达和雨量计构建了9 km卫星像元降雨观测网,观测了像元内降雨非均匀性(空间变异系数CV),并评估了卫星估雨精度.结果表明:(1)CV值受像元内平均降雨量,降雨类型,降雨云面积及移向等影响,如高Cv值的降雨过程大多为平均降雨量小,对流性降雨过程,降雨云边缘像元CV值较高;(2)TRMM 3B42V7卫星估雨产品适用性较好,CMORPH和PERSIANN次之,但TRMM 3B42V7易在半干旱草原湖泊处高估降雨.  相似文献   

Intraseasonal oscillation of the southwest monsoon over Sri Lanka and evaluation of its subseasonal forecast skill          下载免费PDF全文

L.A.D.Buddika Bandurathna  Lu Wang  Xuan Zhou  Yifeng Cheng  Lin Chen 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(6):7-13

斯里兰卡的雨季发生于5-9月间,主要受西南季风的控制.本文发现该地区的西南季风降水存在很强的次季节变率,主导周期为10-35天.降水的季节内变化与西传的异常气旋有关.进一步,利用S2S比较计划中欧洲中心的数值预报模式(ECMWF)提供的回报试验数据,评估了当今动力模式对斯里兰卡西南季风次季节变化的预报技巧.结果显示,对季风指数的预测技巧超过30天,而对降水指数的预测技巧大约两周,且模式的预报技巧具有明显的年际差异.分析表明,能否正确模拟出大尺度环流对热带对流的响应是影响斯里兰卡降水预测的重要因子.  相似文献